National Wildfire Coordinating Group
Current Weather
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Basic Incident Details
Mark Giacoletto, Deputy IC
Current Situation
Timber (Grass and Understory)
Brush (2 feet)
Hardwood Litter
The primary carrier of fire at lower elevations is timber litter with heavy dead and down component. Upper elevations are a timber under-story dominated by brush and conifer litter beneath conifer over-story. Overall, these fuel models are well represented by fuel model 165 (very High Load, Dry Climate Timber-Shrub). Fuels to the west become more open and grassy on upper slopes, with heavier conifer component in drainages.
Moderate Creeping Backing Smoldering; also some flanking and single tree torching.
Narrative:
Early in the day fire behavior was smoldering and creeping where there was heat. As the smoke mixes out, in uncontained areas of the fires, fire activity escalated to slow backing and flanking surface fire spread with isolated torching. Heavy down dead fuels continued to burn. Fire spread is occurring in the brush and timber litter.
Pearch- Firefighters continue to mop up and improve fire lines. Firefighters are also assessing with resource advisors possible check lines.
Lost, Bridge Ridge, Hog, Devil and Glen- Firefighters continue to mop up and monitor control lines. Progress continues with suppression repair.
Lone Pine- Fire continues in patrol status, being checked by firefighters as needed.
Creek, Flat and Iron- These Fires will continue to be patrolled by air.
Monument, Merrill, Let er-Buck- Due to difficult terrain, these fires are being monitored daily.
BIuff#1, Mosquito, Bigfoot, Blue Creek, Marlow and Copper- Firefighters continue to construct and prep indirect fire line around the fires with a mixture of dozer, masticators, crews and chipping. Potential for some strategic firing on Mosquito and Bluff #1.
Planned Outlook
12 hours: As the cloud cover burns off in the afternoon humidity will decrease to around 50
24 hours: As the marine influence gradually recedes, resulting in clearing skies with daytime temperatures increasing slightly as the humidity drops allowing for continued fire activity. Overnight there is a potential for a thermal belt to develop and allow some fire activity to continue in the affected areas. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished resulting in areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas, particularly those areas exposed to the sun.
48 hours: Developing moderate high pressure increasing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This will allow for hot dry conditions increasing the availability of fuels and fire activity. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished. There could be areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas.
72 hours: The high pressure will provide warmer temperatures and lower humidity.
12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be minimal. Creeping and smoldering in duff with isolated jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
24 hours: Seasonable warm and dry weather will continue and allow for interior fuels to continue to consume. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering in surface fuels while consuming jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth anticipated.
48 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth anticipated.
72 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
72 hours: ERC values for the area are forecast to rise near the 90th percentile by Friday. No perimeter growth growth is anticipated.
48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated.
48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated on the northern portion of the Lookout Fire where there is unchecked fireline. Smoke production will increase slightly.
12 hours: Creeping, smoldering, and backing fire with continued rollout overnight. Continued thermal
24 hours: Warmer and drying conditions along with stronger winds from the N-NE. These conditions
48 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to set up on Wednesday going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop winds will test control lines and will increase spotting potential. Ridgetops will pose the areas of greatest rates of spread if these winds occur with the low RH and higher temps. In sheltered areas of the fire spread will continues to be determined by roll out and
72 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to set up on Wednesday going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop winds will test control lines and will increase spotting potential. Ridgetops will pose the areas of greatest rates of spread if these winds occur with the low rh and higher temps. In sheltered areas of the fire spread will continues to be determined by roll out and
72 hours: Following the warm, dry, and windy pattern. Conditions are expected to return to near normal values but with no precipitation anticipated. Increased perimeter
12 hours: Scattered pockets of smoldering with no perimeter growth.
24 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with increased smoke production related to smoldering and
48 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with smoldering and consumption of large wood. No perimeter growth anticipated. Increase in observed smoke in the fire due to warming and drying on the other side of the weak cold front passage on the 11th.
72 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with smoldering and consumption of large wood. No perimeter growth anticipated. Warming and drying with increased smoke production interior as
12 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.
24 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.
48 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.
72 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.
72 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.
12 hours: Smith River Complex South
12 hours: Smith River Complex North
24 hours: Smith River Complex South
24 hours: Smith River Complex North
48 hours: Smith River Complex South
48 hours: Smith River Complex North
72 hours: Smith River Complex South
72 hours: Smith River Complex North
72 hours: Smith River Complex South
72 hours: Smith River Complex North
National Air Operations and Incident Awareness (NIROP) and Assessment (IAA) aircraft has been ordered to the complex daily.
Bigfoot .85 Acres
Blue Creek 0.1 Acres
Blue Creek 2 3,664 Acres
Bluff #1 2,232 Acres
Bridge Ridge 17 Acres
Copper 1,060 Acres
Creek 8 Acres
Devil 12.4 Acres
Flat 2.4 Acres
Glen 0.48 Acres
Hog 0.01 Acres
Iron 20 Acres
Let er-Buck 81.5 Acres
Lone Pine 1,685 Acres
Lost 740.4 Acres
Marlow 1,599 Acres
Merrill 2 Acres
Monument 2 Acres
Mosquito 2,918 Acres
Pearch 5,747 Acres
