The Camp Creek Fire in the Bull Run Watershed northeast of Sandy started late on August 24, 2023 by lightning that moved across Oregon and Washington. The fire is began near the junction of Forest Road 1210 and Forest Road 12.  Firefighters responded quickly. Since then, the Great Basin Incident Management Team 1 has been ordered to assist with suppression efforts and management of the fire.

Bull Run Watershed is closed to the public but is the primary source of drinking water for approximately 1 million people.

Fire is burning in very heavy surface fuels under a partially /fully sheltered timber canopy. Heavy accumulations of rotten logs, branch wood, and deep duff are present. Where present, the timber understory includes thickets of Douglas fir, western hemlock, and western red cedar. Minor understory fuels include salal, big leaf maple, and Oregon grape. Lichen will contribute to torching/spotting when dry. All fuels are summer season dry, live fuels are becoming drought stressed.

Subtle change in the weather today that brings cloudy skies and cooler temperatures. The weather change will have very little effect on the current fire behavior. Current conditions support minimal to moderate fire activity on portions of the incident. The Camp Creek Fire is burning in heavy fuels that include deep duff, decayed logs, and timber litter under a dense timber canopy. Very persistent burning conditions are present, resulting from longer term summer drying. Current fire behavior includes areas of deep smoldering in deep organic material (duff), low-flame creeping, pockets of surface fire spread and continued in-place consumption in heavy fuel concentrations.

12 hours: As the cloud cover burns off in the afternoon humidity will decrease to around 50

24 hours: As the marine influence gradually recedes, resulting in clearing skies with daytime temperatures increasing slightly as the humidity drops allowing for continued fire activity. Overnight there is a potential for a thermal belt to develop and allow some fire activity to continue in the affected areas. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished resulting in areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas, particularly those areas exposed to the sun.

48 hours: Developing moderate high pressure increasing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This will allow for hot dry conditions increasing the availability of fuels and fire activity. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished. There could be areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas.

72 hours: The high pressure will provide warmer temperatures and lower humidity.

12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be minimal. Creeping and smoldering in duff with isolated jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth is anticipated.

24 hours: Seasonable warm and dry weather will continue and allow for interior fuels to continue to consume. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering in surface fuels while consuming jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth anticipated.

48 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth anticipated.

72 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth is anticipated.

72 hours: ERC values for the area are forecast to rise near the 90th percentile by Friday. No perimeter growth growth is anticipated.

48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated.

48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated on the northern portion of the Lookout Fire where there is unchecked fireline. Smoke production will increase slightly.

12 hours: Creeping, smoldering, and backing fire with continued rollout overnight. Continued thermal

24 hours: Warmer and drying conditions along with stronger winds from the N-NE. These conditions

48 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to set up on Wednesday going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop winds will test control lines and will increase spotting potential. Ridgetops will pose the areas of greatest rates of spread if these winds occur with the low RH and higher temps. In sheltered areas of the fire spread will continues to be determined by roll out and

72 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to set up on Wednesday going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop winds will test control lines and will increase spotting potential. Ridgetops will pose the areas of greatest rates of spread if these winds occur with the low rh and higher temps. In sheltered areas of the fire spread will continues to be determined by roll out and

72 hours: Following the warm, dry, and windy pattern. Conditions are expected to return to near normal values but with no precipitation anticipated. Increased perimeter

12 hours: Scattered pockets of smoldering with no perimeter growth.

24 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with increased smoke production related to smoldering and

48 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with smoldering and consumption of large wood. No perimeter growth anticipated. Increase in observed smoke in the fire due to warming and drying on the other side of the weak cold front passage on the 11th.

72 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with smoldering and consumption of large wood. No perimeter growth anticipated. Warming and drying with increased smoke production interior as

12 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

24 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

48 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

72 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

72 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.