US Forest Service — Umpqua National Forest
Current Weather
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Incident Overview
Inciweb information was updated: 1 year, 3 months ago
The lightning that passed through Oregon the night of August 24, left a mark on the Umpqua National Forest. The Pacific Northwest Region is feeling a shortage of resources, and these new fires are being staffed based on the values that are at risk and the potential for growth.
Northwest Incident Management Team 6 is managing five of these fires including the Brice Creek, Dinner, Grizzly, Chilcoot, and Ridge Fires.
The Dinner Fire is located near Dinner Creek and Hollow Meadows Road.
Basic Incident Details
Incident Commander Tyson Albrecht
Deputy Incident Commander- Adam Veale
Current Situation
Timber (litter and understory), medium logging slash.
Fuels consist of timber litter. In mature stands, duff, snags and heavy loading of larger logs and down woody debris exists with areas of shrub and herbaceous fuels. Also, in mature stands, abundant moss and lichen fuels are present. Moss and lichen are also present in older second growth stands, along with duff, needle litter and a moderate loading of 100hr and 1000hr fuels. Scattered shrub layer is also present in these stands. In younger second growth stands, fuels consist of needle litter with scattered jackpots of down woody debris. Moss and lichen fuels are scattered and less abundant in younger stands.
Fire activity continues to be minimal, however, warming and drying trend is slowly increasing fuel availability in any unburned pockets inside the fire perimeter. Low intensity burning in the duff and stump holes. No perimeter growth observed, creeping and smoldering limited to areas interior to the fire edge.
Planned Outlook
12 hours: As the cloud cover burns off in the afternoon humidity will decrease to around 50
24 hours: As the marine influence gradually recedes, resulting in clearing skies with daytime temperatures increasing slightly as the humidity drops allowing for continued fire activity. Overnight there is a potential for a thermal belt to develop and allow some fire activity to continue in the affected areas. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished resulting in areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas, particularly those areas exposed to the sun.
48 hours: Developing moderate high pressure increasing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This will allow for hot dry conditions increasing the availability of fuels and fire activity. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished. There could be areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas.
72 hours: The high pressure will provide warmer temperatures and lower humidity.
12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be minimal. Creeping and smoldering in duff with isolated jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
24 hours: Seasonable warm and dry weather will continue and allow for interior fuels to continue to consume. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering in surface fuels while consuming jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth anticipated.
48 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth anticipated.
72 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
72 hours: ERC values for the area are forecast to rise near the 90th percentile by Friday. No perimeter growth growth is anticipated.
