On June 8th, the Pioneer Fire was reported burning on private land 31 miles northwest of Chelan and quickly spread onto US Forest Service land, including wilderness. Fire managers are using a full-suppression strategy to protect private property, public infrastructure, and natural and recreation resources, while minimizing risks to responders and the public. Part of the rationale for a full-suppression strategy is that the origin of the fire was on private land, and it is suspected to have been human caused. The communities of Stehekin, Chelan, and Manson are open and continue to welcome visitors. Initial attack resources attempted direct tactics early on, but were challenged by the extremely steep and remote terrain on the east side of Lake Chelan that can only be accessed by boat or air. Full suppression efforts are being implemented utilizing a combination of direct, indirect, and point protection where the highest probability of success can be safely achieved. Firefighters continue to establish firelines and hose lays, working in conjunction with water-dropping aircraft.While much of the fire area is within wilderness, if the fire were to spread significantly, it could affect population centers. Crews are actively assessing structures around Lake Chelan to develop structure protection plans to increase defensibility. Chelan County is continually updating evacuation levels as activity changes. Please see the 'Announcements' tab for more information.The Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest has a closure order in place for the area around Pioneer Fire. Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (National Park Service) has also issued a closure order for Lakeshore Trail from Stehekin to Flick Creek Campsite, and for Flick Creek Campsite. Please see the 'Closures' tab for more information.
Fire area fuels include: Timber (Grass and Understory); Short Grass (1 foot); and Timber (Litter and Understory)
The Pioneer incident is within the footprint of the 2001 Rex Creek burn. Fuels in the area are highly modified by previous fire history. Abundant snags, heavy downed woody material, grasses, young conifer stands and shrub patches occupy the area. The area is a mosaic of fuel patches with rock scree and outcrops serving as partial barriers to fire spread. Grasses are mostly cured, while shrubs and herbaceous are seasonally moist. Timber litter fuels are patchy and dry.
Observed fire behavior: Active, Uphill Runs, Flanking, Backing
Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday. Critical weather conditions continue to produce areas of very active fire behavior with large fire growth in mid and upper drainages and continued smoke production. Fire has crossed Hunts Creek on the northern flank and has been active in the upper East Fork of Fish Creek and is likely to become more active in the North Fork Fish Creek drainage. Prince Creek areas are active with flanking and uphill fingering fire runs on both sides up to the Middle Fork Prince Creek. The south end of the fire is primarily confined to extremely steep slopes above the lake shore between Canoe and Lone Fire Creeks showing scattered heat. The fire remains within the Rex Creek (2001) fire footprint which provides a modified fuels profile that includes ample heavy downed woody materials and snags. Lake Chelan's winds and complex steep topography are contributing to suppression challenges.
12 hours: Extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread to the south long and short range spotting
24 hours: Extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread.
12 hours: Expect the most active fire behavior and perimeter growth to the E and SE of the fire with NW winds towards I-84, Bowman Flats, and Juniper Mtn. at high rates of spread.
24 hours: The main perimeter growth with head and flanking fire is expected to the SSE towards Birch Creek Meadow.
48 hours: Active fire behavior is expected to the SSE across Cinder Butte with continued gusty NNW winds.
72 hours: The main perimeter growth with head and flanking fire is expected towards Birch Creek.
72 hours: Containment features due to suppression resources can be expected to slow fire growth along some perimeter. Backing fire can be expected along the northern perimeter towards the Burnt River. Where containment features are established, the potential for spotting outside the perimeter remains possible as well.
12 hours: Expect minimal fire behavior in DIV W and T. Other divisions can expect no forward progression of fire due to containment features and suppression actions. There's low potential for spread to the west outside the main fire perimeter under current conditions.
24 hours:
48 hours: All divisions can expect no forward progression of fire due to containment features and suppression actions. There's low potential for spread to the west outside the main fire perimeter under current conditions.
72 hours: Same as above
72 hours: Same as above
12 hours: Expect active fire behavior throughout the night and into the morning due to poor RH recoveries.
24 hours: Continued hot and dry weather with gusty winds in the afternoon. Expecting very unstable air resulting in probable pyro-cumulus production and extreme fire behavior with large growth possible in multiple directions due to mid to long range spotting potential.
48 hours: Continued hot and dry weather with gusty winds in the afternoon. Expecting very unstable air resulting in probably pyro-cumulus production and extreme fire behavior with large growth potential in multiple directions due to mid to long range spotting potential. Slight chance of light showers and thunderstorms.
72 hours: Dry cold front expected, which will lower temperatures slightly, but conditions will remain dry and winds will be gusty resulting in very active to extreme fire behavior.
72 hours:Cooling temperatures will result in a slight decline in fire behavior but will continue to be active.
12 hours: Fire
24 hours: Saturday,
48 hours: Sunday,
72 hours: Monday -
12 hours: Fire will remain active in the thermal belt through much of the night. Poor to moderate humidity recovery will contribute to continued backing and flanking fire spread. Roll outs on the steep slopes will also add to fire spread.
24 hours: Above normal temperatures and low humidity along with unstable atmosphere will aid in continued backing, flanking fire spread with short upslope torching runs. Short range spotting is likely. There is potential for spotting across the Cascade Crest into the Methow River head waters.
12 hours: Excessive Heat Warning in Effect with well above normal temperatures and low relative humidity continue to produce very active fire behavior with wind and slope alignment. Areas on the north and southeast flanks of the fire continue to produce very active flanking, backing (with rolling materials), and short head fire runs on slopes in available surface fuels. Fire activity on the southwest aspect of Moore Mountain will continue to flank northwest. East Fork of Fish Cr. has spread into Indian and Baldy Creeks. The eastern flank of the fire is spreading up Prince Creek into the Middle Fk. of Prince Creek with flanking, backing and upslope fingering runs. Lone Fir Creek area contains residual scattered heat.
24 hours: Excessive Heat Warning in Effect with very hot and dry conditions with unstable atmosphere. Variable southerly winds will continue to produce very active fire in areas of available fuels. Fire activity on the west aspect of Moore Mountain will continue to back and flank with short upslope runs, generally spreading northerly towards Flick Creek drainage. East Fork of Fish Cr. has spread into Indian and Baldy Creeks. The eastern flank of the fire continues to be active in Prince Creek and into the Middle Fork of Prince Creek with flanking, backing and upslope fingering runs. Lone Fir Creek area contains residual scattered heat. Upstream portions of Fish Cr. and E. Fk. Fish Cr. drainage will remain very active in the Indian and Baldy Creek areas. On the south flank, fire continues to spread upstream along Prince Creek and includes flanking, backing and upslope fingering runs on both sides to the Middle Fork Prince Creek in the Cub Lake area. Poor to moderate nighttime humidity recovery will contribute to cumulative drying of live and dead fuels.
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